In the lead-up to the 2024 election, Harry Enten of CNN examined party registration data both nationwide and in battleground states. Based on historical data, Enten believes the evidence indicates Republicans will likely win.<\/p>\n
\u201cIn November 2020, you saw Democrats at 47%, and Republicans at 39%. That was an eight-point advantage. Look at where we are today. Yes, more voters in Pennsylvania are still registered as Democrats than Republicans, but it\u2019s now just 44% to 40%. They\u2019ve got a four-point gap. Republicans have cut that Democratic advantage in half in such a short period of time,\u201d Enten said.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe GOP leads by a point in party identification right now. The average when the Republican Party loses is the Democrats ahead by eight. When the Republican Party wins, the average party ID advantage for Democrats is at three. Republicans right now, are doing even better than the average when they win,\u201d Enten explained.<\/p>\n
CNN\u2019s Manu Raju asked: \u201cWhat have you found about how voters are leaning at this point compared to 2020?\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cYeah, I mean, the voter registration fresh numbers\u2014if you want a stat that Republicans absolutely love, it\u2019s this one, right? Pennsylvania voter registration, you register by party in that state. You go back to November 2020, you see Democrats at 47%, and Republicans at 39%. That was an eight-point advantage. Look at where we are today. Yes, more voters in Pennsylvania are still registered as Democrats than Republicans, but it\u2019s now just 44% to 40%. They\u2019ve got a four-point gap. Republicans have cut that Democratic advantage in half in such a short period of time. They\u2019ve gone out, registered voters, and there are folks who have come over to their side who were previously registered Democrats,\u201d Enten said.<\/p>\n
Enten added: \u201cThe question is: Where are they picking up ground? This, to me, says it all. If you look at Pennsylvania counties where the GOP has gained in registration, in counties where less than 50% of the population is non-college white voters, Republicans have gained just a point. But in areas where over 50% are non-college whites, look at this\u2014Republicans have gained six points on average.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cThey\u2019re picking up ground in the areas you\u2019d expect: non-college white-dominated areas, coal country in the northeast, southwest outside of Pittsburgh. The bottom line is, the registration trends we\u2019ve been seeing over the last few cycles \u2014 with Republicans dominating among non-college white voters \u2014 are very much showing up in party registration,\u201d Enten added.<\/p>\n
Raju jumped back in and asked: \u201cWhat does this tell us nationally? Are we seeing this in other battleground states? Is this changing the registration advantage for Democrats?\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cAlright, so if this was just Pennsylvania, where we\u2019re seeing this trend, I don\u2019t think we\u2019d necessarily be doing a segment on this if it weren\u2019t part of a larger picture,\u201d Enten began.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere are fewer voters registered as Democrats across the battleground states where you have party registration. Not every state has party registration \u2014 Wisconsin doesn\u2019t, Georgia doesn\u2019t, Michigan doesn\u2019t \u2014 but in the battleground states where you do have party registration, there are now fewer registered Democrats in Arizona, fewer registered Democrats in Nevada, and fewer registered Democrats in North Carolina. So what we\u2019re seeing in Pennsylvania is being mirrored in other states as well. More folks are registering as Republicans compared to Democrats,\u201d Enten said.<\/p>\n
\u201cBut we\u2019re looking at the battleground states, so let\u2019s take this out nationally, right? This is party registration, but let\u2019s look at party identification. Party registration is when you\u2019re actually registered with a party. Party ID is when you say, \u201cI feel like a Democrat today\u201d or \u201cI feel like a Republican.\u201d They\u2019re correlated, but they\u2019re not exactly the same. But I think it gets at the trend that\u2019s going on here,\u201d Enten continued.<\/p>\n
Enten decalred, \u201cParty ID nationally, you go to October\/November of 2016, Democrats had a three-point advantage. You go four years ago, Democrats had a six avenge. Look at where we are today. Republicans with a one-point advantage, a very different picture, very much mirroring what we see in the party registration numbers in those key battleground states, and Pennsylvania in particular. The GOP leads by a point in party identification right now. The average when the Republican Party loses is the Democrats ahead by eight. When the Republican Party wins, the average party ID advantage for Democrats is at three. Republicans right now, are doing even better than the average when they win.\u201d<\/p>\n
Enten concluded: \u201cIf there\u2019s one little nugget that I think Republicans are really helpful for this party ID and this party registration data, it really points in a good direction for them and for Donald Trump.\u201d<\/p>\n
WATCH:<\/p>\n
CNN\u2019s Enten: GOP Has Made Big Gains In Party Registration, Identification Since 2020<\/p>\n
More \u2013 https:\/\/t.co\/oF3YTLwCxa<\/a><\/p>\n \u201cThe GOP leads by a point in party identification right now. The average when the Republican Party loses is the Democrats ahead by eight. When the Republican\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/JFzi1S4qTH<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 RCP Video (@rcpvideo) October 13, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n\n The post CNN\u2019s Enten: GOP Made Big Gains In Party Registration, Identification Since 2020<\/a> appeared first on Conservative Brief<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" In the lead-up to the 2024 election, Harry Enten of CNN examined party registration data both nationwide and in battleground states. Based on historical data, Enten believes the evidence indicates Republicans will likely win. \u201cIn November 2020, you saw Democrats at 47%, and Republicans at 39%. That was an eight-point advantage. Look at where we…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[136],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5167","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/topproductsonly.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5167","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/topproductsonly.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/topproductsonly.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/topproductsonly.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5167"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/topproductsonly.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5167\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/topproductsonly.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5167"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/topproductsonly.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5167"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/topproductsonly.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5167"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}