An election expert who used to say that Vice President Kamala Harris would win by a huge margin now says that former President Donald Trump will win.<\/p>\n
Thomas Miller, a data scientist who correctly predicted the outcome of the 2020 presidential election, had earlier backed Harris to win in 2024. In September, he told Newsweek that his model showed the Democrat would likely get more than 400 electoral votes.<\/p>\n
Based on betting odds instead of polling data, the model now says that Trump is the favorite. Its most recent estimate is that the Republicans could win 345 Electoral College votes, Newsweek reported<\/a>.<\/p>\n Newsweek has drawn up what a possible win for the former president with 345 Electoral College votes would look like. FiveThirtyEight says that in this case, he wins all the states where Harris has a lead of less than ten points, including the South and the Midwest.<\/p>\n The model first said that Trump would win by a small margin on October 7, when betting odds started to move in his favor.<\/p>\n Miller\u2019s model puts betting odds ahead of survey data and uses what he calls \u201cfundamentals,\u201d or past election trends, to balance the data. This is something that most other models also do.<\/p>\n Miller is using data from the betting site PredictIt to fuel his model for the 2024 election. This is the same data that he used to make his correct guess in 2020.<\/p>\n The facts and the fundamentals, on the other hand, point to different outcomes.<\/p>\n As of October 20, Miller wrote on his website that \u201ctechnical and fundamental analyses are not in alignment,\u201d which means that past trends point to a Democratic victory while betting odds say Trump will win.<\/p>\n Polls still show that the race is close, but betting odds have continued to favor Trump. For example, Polymarket odds give Trump a 60.3% chance of winning nationally, while Harris only has a 39.7% chance.<\/p>\n In the past, betting odds have always been right about who would win the presidential race. However, they are not based on the same representational statistics as polls, so they are more likely to be wrong.<\/p>\n Miller told Newsweek that he fixes his model for any possible biases, which right now are tilted toward Trump.<\/p>\n \u201cPrediction markets have a Republican bias,\u201d Miller said. \u201cWe assessed the degree of Republican bias in 2020, and we currently correct for that degree of bias. What is uncertain, however, is the level of Republican bias in prediction markets in 2024. We are conducting studies across prediction markets that we hope will shed light on the degree of bias in 2024.\u201d<\/p>\n Miller\u2019s most recent estimate is a little better for Harris than the last one, but she\u2019s still losing.<\/p>\n On October 26, the model said the vice president would only win 171 Electoral College votes, which was the worst showing for a candidate since 1996, when Sen. Bob Dole ran as a Republican.<\/p>\n \u201cThe 2024 race for the presidency has gone from toss-up to Republican landslide, to toss-up, to a possible Democratic landslide, to toss-up, and now to a possible Republican landslide,\u201d Miller said.<\/p>\n \u201cCould prediction markets and associated election forecasts turn again with less than two weeks before the close of voting on November 5? Yes. We expect to see increased trading and high volatility in the final week of the race,\u201d Miller added.<\/p>\n Since 1980, there have been 11 presidential elections.<\/p>\n The only one where the winning candidate had worse chances than the losing candidate was 2016, when both betting markets and regular polls didn\u2019t see Trump winning.<\/p>\n CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten pointed to several factors during a network segment on Wednesday indicating that Trump is very likely to defeat Harris.<\/p>\n Trump and Harris are currently in a tight race, with the former president holding a narrow lead over the vice president in six of the top seven battleground states, according to RealClearPolitics averages.<\/p>\n But on \u201cCNN News Central,\u201d Enten pointed out that voter dissatisfaction with the country\u2019s direction, President Joe Biden\u2019s unpopularity, and high Republican registration numbers are all indicators that favor a Trump victory.<\/p>\n \u201cJust 28% of Americans, voters, think the country is going in the right direction, is on the right track. And I want to put that into a historical perspective for you. Okay, what\u2019s the average percentage of the public that thinks that the country is on the right track when the incumbent party loses? It\u2019s 25%,\u201d Enten said<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u201cThat 25% looks an awful bit like that 28% up there. It doesn\u2019t look anything, anything like this 42% [average when the incumbent party won] doesn\u2019t look anything like this 28%. So, the bottom line is very few Americans think the country is on the right track at this particular point. It tracks much more with when the incumbent party loses than with [when] it wins,\u201d he continued.<\/p>\n Enten further pointed out that Biden\u2019s low approval rating may historically suggest a loss for Harris because previous presidents with net negative approval ratings have not been succeeded by candidates from their own party.<\/p>\n \u201cIn fact, I went back through history, there isn\u2019t a single time in which 28% of the American public thinks the country is going on the right track in which the incumbent party actually won,\u201d Enten noted further. \u201cThey always lose when just 28% of the country believes that the country is on the right track.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cNow, we don\u2019t know if Kamala Harris is going to succeed Joe Biden, but we know back in 2008, George W. Bush\u2019s approval rating was down in the 20\u2019s. Did a Republican succeed George W. Bush? No. How \u2019bout in 1968? Lyndon Baines Johnson, his net approval rating was negative. Did a Democrat succeed Lyndon Baines Johnson? No,\u201d the data reporter said. \u201cHow \u2019bout in \u201952 Harry S. Truman, his approval rating was in the 20\u2019s, if not the upper teens.\u201d<\/p>\n The post Forecaster Who Backed Kamala Harris Now Says Trump Set for Landslide<\/a> appeared first on Conservative Brief<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" An election expert who used to say that Vice President Kamala Harris would win by a huge margin now says that former President Donald Trump will win. Thomas Miller, a data scientist who correctly predicted the outcome of the 2020 presidential election, had earlier backed Harris to win in 2024. In September, he told Newsweek…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[136],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5188","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/topproductsonly.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5188","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/topproductsonly.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/topproductsonly.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/topproductsonly.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5188"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/topproductsonly.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5188\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/topproductsonly.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5188"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/topproductsonly.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5188"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/topproductsonly.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5188"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}